Dynamic Household Vehicle Decision Modeling Considering Plug-In Electric Vehicles
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) offer alternatives to traditional vehicles that rely on petroleum-based fuels. While PEV customers can enjoy significant reductions in fuel costs, they incur a larger capital cost than users of traditional vehicles because PEV technology is still maturing. Therefore, consumers adopting PEVs face a trade-off between fuel cost savings with environmental benefits and extra capital cost. It is thus crucial for policy makers and PEV manufacturers to understand people’s vehicle decision-making process while considering their socio-economic and travel pattern characteristics as well as the built-environment factors. This paper presents a connected, two-stage, dynamic model of PEV adoption and vehicle-transaction decision-making. Two connected nested logit (NL) models are estimated. The upper level is a two-level NL model to predict choice of vehicle type between four fuel types: gasoline, diesel, hybrid gasoline–electric, and PEV. The lower level is an NL model of vehicle-transaction choice which accommodates four transaction decisions of buy, trade, dispose, and do nothing, while accounting for the log-sum from the vehicle-type choice model, and is estimated using two waves of a panel data set. We find that households with higher levels of income and education are more likely to adopt a PEV. We also found that primarily decision makers take into account the accessibility to charging stations as a critical factor in choosing PEVs.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
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Authors:
- Nazari, Fatemeh
- Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros)
- Stephens, Thomas
- Publication Date: 2018-12
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 91-100
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- Volume: 2672
- Issue Number: 49
- Publisher: Sage Publications, Incorporated
- ISSN: 0361-1981
- EISSN: 2169-4052
- Serial URL: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/trr
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Choice models; Decision making; Electric vehicles; Households; Logits; Socioeconomic factors; Travel behavior
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01660426
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 18-04260
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Feb 20 2018 9:28AM