Potential Automated/Connected Vehicle Impacts to Travel Forecasting: A Case Study of a Congested Region in Texas

The pending implementation of autonomous and connected vehicle (AV/CV) technologies invokes planning considerations that venture between speculation, cautious optimism, and dismissiveness regarding the potential of these technologies to improve mobility, safety, and reliability. The truth, which will evolve over several decades, lies somewhere in between. During the lifetime of the Metropolitan Transportation Plans (MTPs) currently under development by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) across the country, AV/CV technologies will be implemented. How fast the fleet will turn over, what policies will be considered to support these technologies, and what costs these technologies will have in the future create a very uncertain planning environment for MPOs. It is important for MPOs to address AV/CV implementation and consequences in pending transportation plans. Motivated by this need, and under the current environment of uncertainty associated with AV/CV adoption, this project investigated potential initial approaches for accounting for AV/CV within traditional travel forecasting systems. As a result, several AV/CV scenarios were developed and analyzed through a case study using a congested region in Texas. To provide an effective and practical approach, this study attempted to define the problem and the considerations for each alternative technique. The study purposely used an existing trip-based model without changing the modeling architecture or parameters so that other MPOs in Texas could potentially consider replicating the methodology. This approach could be especially helpful for small to medium-sized urbanized areas that may not have internal technical expertise or resources to apply more sophisticated techniques for assessing potential outcomes of AV/CV.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADA20 Standing Committee on Metropolitan Policy, Planning, and Processes. Alternative title: Potential Automated and Connected Vehicle Impacts to Travel Forecasting: A Case Study of a Congested Region in Texas.
• Authors:
  • Hall, Kevin
  • Sener, Ipek N
  • Pang, Hao
  • Williams, Thomas
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References;
• Pagination: 16p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Connected vehicles; Forecasting; Intelligent vehicles; Metropolitan planning organizations; Traffic congestion; Traffic forecasting; Transportation planning; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: Texas
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01663005
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-03151
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 20 2018 5:04PM