Developing Scenarios to Explore Impacts and Weaknesses in Aviation Response Exercises for Volcanic Ash Eruptions

Ash from volcanic eruptions can severely interrupt air traffic, as the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 (hereafter E2010) impressively demonstrated. While the event had an unprecedented impact on aviation, especially in Europe, some research suggests that similar volcanic events might occur at shorter intervals in the future. This study developed two volcanic ash scenarios using Icelandic volcanoes to demonstrate the potential scale of extreme, yet possible event in terms of duration and intensity. This is done to investigate responses either during a long period of continuous risk assessment and maintenance or when facing a large-scale severe interruption of air traffic, while under current regulations. The NAME model of ash dispersion, used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, was used to simulate the ash distribution in the scenarios. The model scenarios used historic data of ash volumes and the weather patterns prevailing in the E2010 event. The scenarios were presented to aviation experts to help create a picture of the current resilience of the aviation sector and identify opportunities for improvement in the current risk management. The research demonstrates that under both scenarios the impact on air traffic would be significant. Although uncertainties are too large to perform a detailed economic risk assessment, the financial consequences in both scenarios were expected to be in the order of billions of Euros. Furthermore, the scenarios identified weaknesses in current response exercises to volcanic events suggesting they need to work with more extreme scenarios and at some point test long duration.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AV090 Standing Committee on Aviation Security and Emergency Management.
• Authors:
  • Reichardt, Uta
  • Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F
  • Pétursdóttir, Guðrún
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 17p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Aviation safety; Disaster preparedness; Disaster resilience; Disasters and emergency operations; Forecasting; Risk management; Service disruption; Volcanic ash; Volcanoes
• Identifier Terms: London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre
• Geographic Terms: Eyjafjallajokull volcano (Iceland); Iceland
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01664285
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-02954
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 27 2018 11:15AM