Invest in the Ride: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Determinants of Public Transport Ridership in 25 North American Cities

Public transport ridership has been steadily increasing since the early 2000s in many urban areas in North America. However, many cities have more recently seen their transit ridership plateaued, if not decreased. While several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this loss in ridership, no recent study has come to a definite conclusion. The aim of this study is, therefore, to explore the determinants of public transport ridership from 2002 to 2015 for 25 transit authorities in Canada and the United States using a longitudinal multilevel mixed-effect regression approach. The results suggest that operating costs, capital costs in the previous year, fares, population density and car ownership are the main predictors of ridership. External factors such as gas prices and the presence of shared economy services (Uber and bicycle sharing), although not statistically significant in the models, are associated with higher levels of ridership, which contradicts some of the experts’ opinions. From a policy perspective, this research suggests that the reduction in investments in public transport operation was a key factor contributing to the decline in ridership in various cities. This study is of relevance to public transport engineers, planners, researchers, and policy-makers wishing to understand the factors that can lead to an increase in transit ridership in a North American context.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP025 Standing Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development.
• Authors:
  • Boisjoly, Geneviève
  • Grisé, Emily
  • Maguire, Meadhbh
  • Veillette, Marie-Pier
  • Deboosere, Robbin
  • Berrebi, Emma
  • El-Geneidy, Ahmed
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Pagination: 2p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Cities; Costs; Fares; Population density; Public transit; Regression analysis; Ridership
• Geographic Terms: Canada; United States
• Subject Areas: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01663520
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-01785
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 22 2018 11:54AM