Estimating Consumer Interest in Private Ownership and Shared Use of Autonomous Vehicles in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) appear poised to transform urban transportation, but the direction and magnitude of change is unclear. Private autonomous vehicles (PAVs) could be individually owned and induce sprawl and more driving (1). In contrast, fleets of on-demand shared AVs (SAVs) could reduce the need to own and use cars to travel. While such normative visions currently shape the public discussion, for public policy to effectively manage this new technology, a better understanding of how consumers will adopt and use AVs is important. Based on a consumer survey in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Canada, this research seeks to understand the conditions under which consumers will adopt and use AVs. The survey is administered to 3,201 respondents in November 2016 and asks questions related to individual and household characteristics, commuting and travel, and preferences for AVs. Ordered probit models are estimated to explore demand for PAVs or SAVs (estimated independently for trips to/from transit and for other trips). Findings identify common interest in both PAVs or SAVs among young, urbanites, those with flexible work schedules, the tech-savvy, current Uber users, and chauffeurs. PAV adopters are expected to be auto users with cars costing more than $30,000. In contrast, SAV users are expected to be current commuters by non-auto modes and indicate significant potential for SAV trips to both substitute for and complement non-auto commuting. Overall, findings suggest that AVs are likely to disrupt current travel patterns and particularly transportation policies designed to increase non-auto mode shares.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD20 Standing Committee on Social and Economic Factors of Transportation. Estimating Consumer Demand for Autonomous Vehicles in the Greater Toronto–Hamilton Area: 2016 Survey and Model Results: This is an alternate title.
• Authors:
  • Laidlaw, Kailey
  • Sweet, Matthias N
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Bibliography; Tables;
• Pagination: 7p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Consumer preferences; Intelligent vehicles; Modal split; Probits; Vehicle sharing
• Geographic Terms: Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01658342
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-01664
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 29 2018 10:25AM