ANALYSIS OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC TIME-SERIES DATA BY USING BOX-JENKINS TECHNIQUES

This paper investigated the application of analysis techniques develoepd by Box and Jenkins to freeway traffic volume and occupancy time series. A total of 166 data sets from three surveillance systems in Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and Detroit were used in the development of a predictor model to provide short-term forecasts of traffic data. All of the data sets were best represented by an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) (0,1,3) model. The moving-average parameters of the model, however, vary from location to location and over time. The ARIMA models were found to be more accurate in representing freeway time-series data, in terms of mean absolute error and mean square error, than moving-average, double-exponential smoothing, and Trigg and Leach adaptive models. Suggestions and implications for the operational use of the ARIMA model in making forecasts one time interval in advance are made. /Author/

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1979/722/722-001.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=ANALYSIS+OF+FREEWAY+TRAFFIC+TIME-SERIES+DATA+BY+USING+BOX-JENKINS+TECHNIQUES&author=M.+Ahmed&author=A.+COOK&publication_year=1979
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Freeway Operations. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Ahmed, Mohammed S
  • COOK, ALLEN R
• Publication Date: 1979

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1-9
• Monograph Title: Urban systems operations
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 722
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Data analysis; Forecasting; Freeways; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Time series; Traffic flow
• Uncontrolled Terms: Occupancy
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00308575
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309029724
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 22 1980 12:00AM