Estimating Transit Route OD Flows in the Presence of Multiple Latent Flow Patterns

Route-level Origin-Destination (OD) flow matrices provide useful information for ridership forecasting, service planning and control strategies development. While methods for estimating route-level OD matrices from boarding and alighting counts are based on different assumptions and employ different estimation approaches, they all assume, explicitly or implicitly, that the passenger flow patterns reflect a single underlying probability OD flow matrix. However, across the day and even within a time-of-day (e.g., morning, mid-day, and evening periods), different travelers are engaged in a variety of trip purposes, such as work, personal business, education, and shopping. Such variations within a time-of-day period are becoming even more prevalent with the advent of more complex life and work needs and duties across varying household structures. Therefore, passengers’ travel purposes, which are associated with different sets of origin-destination pairs and departure times within a time-of-day period would be more realistically represented by multiple underlying probability OD flows reflecting the variety of travel purposes. In this study, the computationally efficient variational Bayes method is extended to capture the presence of multiple underlying OD flow matrices. In addition, a data-inspired simulation based evaluation is conducted to assess the value of recognizing multiple underlying probability OD flow matrices. Moreover, a preliminary empirical study is conducted to investigate the potential presence of multiple underlying probability OD flow matrices on an operational bus route.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: 11p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01641095
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: NEXTRANS Project No. 168OSUY2.2
  • Contract Numbers: DTRT12-G-UTC05
  • Created Date: Jun 30 2017 12:06PM