Forecasting Perth’s public transport patronage: econometric analysis and model development

The paper outlines the development and application of a model for forecasting patronage and fare revenues for Perth's public transport services over the medium term. The model development involved the following three main areas of work. An econometric (time series) analysis was undertaken of Perth's monthly patronage over the last 15 years, using a seasonal difference (‘double-log’) modelling methodology and deriving a set of short run demand elasticities. The model's dependent variable was 'first' boardings (by bus, train) per population per 'standard' month. The main independent variables were average real fare levels, service kilometres, petrol price, employment level and average incomes. Principally as a check on the elasticity estimates derived for Perth, a review was undertaken of the main econometric studies undertaken in the last 10 years of public transport patronage changes in Australasian metropolitan areas and their resultant elasticity estimates. A surprisingly wide spread of elasticity values was found for each variable in the 10 studies reviewed, although with some signs of estimates clustering around the values expected from wider (international) evidence. In our view, these results indicate not that market responses are very different in different cities; but rather that underlying responses are generally very consistent, and that successful time series modelling is very challenging. In the light of the above, and based principally on the outputs from the Perth modelling, a 'best estimate' set of elasticity values relevant to Perth was selected. Using these elasticities, a spreadsheet-based forecasting model was formulated, for use by the WA state authorities (principally Transperth/WA Public Transport Authority) to support their short/medium term patronage monitoring, planning and budgeting functions.

• Record URL:
  http://atrf.info/papers/2016/index.aspx
• Authors:
  • WALLIS, I
  • Lawrence, A
• Conference:
  • Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 38th, 2016, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
• Publication Date: 2016-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: 38th Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF 2016), Melbourne, 16th - 18th November 2016

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Econometrics; Modal split; Mode choice; Planning; Public transit; Transportation planning; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Willingness to pay
• Geographic Terms: Australia; Perth (Australia)
• ATRI Terms: Demand elasticity; Econometrics; Modal choice; Public transport; Transport planning; Travel demand; Willingness to pay
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 744: Public transport
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01627462
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 27 2017 10:12AM