Multiscale Network Model for Evaluating Global Outbreak Control Strategies

High volumes of passenger air travel increase the risk of infectious disease epidemics and pandemics. Regional preparedness planning for large-scale outbreaks requires models that are able to capture outbreak dynamics within a control policy evaluation framework. Previous studies focused on either modeling outbreak dynamics or optimizing outbreak control decisions; this paper proposes an integrated approach that combines both aspects. A multiscale epidemic outbreak model is introduced that is designed to capture the infection dynamics at both the local (city) scale and the global (air travel) scale. A bilevel decision-making framework is then proposed to identify the optimal set of outbreak control policies, while accounting for local and global outbreak dynamics. The model is implemented for a case study in which a hypothetical epidemic outbreak is assumed to emerge from within the United States, and different control resource allocation strategies are explored and evaluated. The results highlight the importance of accounting for outbreak dynamics within the decision-making process and provide insight into the design and efficiency of a range of control strategies. This research is an initial effort to be followed by further research on the design of outbreak control strategies by using optimization algorithms under this framework.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2626-06
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Authors:
  • Chen, Nathan
  • Rey, David
  • Gardner, Lauren
• Publication Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 42–50
• Monograph Title: Aviation
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2626
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air travel; Case studies; Communicable diseases; Decision making; Disaster preparedness; Regional planning; Transportation policy
• Uncontrolled Terms: Epidemics
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01622488
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309441858
• Report/Paper Numbers: 17-03060
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 17 2017 9:35AM