Economic Analysis of Inland Waterway Transport Chain Based on Multinomial Logit Model

The primary goal of this study was to determine appropriate policies to increase the proportion of freight transported by water on the Hangyong (Hangzhou-Ningbo) canal, thus improving the economic efficiency of the canal. The appropriateness of the policies depends on the preferences of shippers. This study examined Hangzhou-to-Ningbo shipping container usage. Factors such as the transportation chain time and cost, the characteristics of the shippers (number of employees and annual freight tonnage), and the value of the freight were used to construct a transportation chain utility function. Through surveys, data on shipper choices for transportation were obtained to model the decision process. Multinomial logit and mixed logit models were used to model decisions. The most suitable model was selected according to the level of significance of the estimated parameter values. It was determined that the transportation chain time and cost are the most significant factors in the decisions of Hangyong canal freight shippers. To show the heterogeneity in the choices of shippers, a mixed logit model with random parameters and a restricted triangular distribution was constructed. However, the overall accuracy of this model was not significantly better than that of the multinomial logit model, so the simpler and intuitive multinomial logit model was selected. The marginal rates of substitution between the characteristic variables were assessed. It was determined that the time value of all shipping in the Hangyong channel was 52.50 Chinese Yuan/(TEU⋅hour) (where TEU is twenty-foot equivalent units). The modal share of the waterway transport chain, particularly the chain using 500 DWT (deadweight tons) ships, gradually increases as the channel capacity is increased. Furthermore, the effect of the transportation time on the 500 DWT ship waterway transportation chain is much higher than that of the transportation cost. The increase in waterway modal share resulting from reductions in transportation time is approximately seven times that resulting from reductions in transportation cost of the same percentage. Moreover, for the same policy options, the changes in the modal share of 500 DWT/24 TEU ships and 300 DWT/16 TEU ships are very similar; that is, the competitiveness of the two ship types is very similar. Furthermore, the competitiveness of 500 DWT/30 TEU ships is higher than that of either of the smaller types.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AW020 Standing Committee on Inland Water Transportation.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Li, Ye
  • Yu, Yuewu
  • Lou, Jia
  • Liu, Yuanlin
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
• Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 13p
• Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Canals; Choice models; Containers; Costs; Decision making; Economic analysis; Freight traffic; Inland water transportation; Modal split; Multinomial logits; Policy; Ship lines; Surveys; Travel time
• Geographic Terms: Hangyong Canal (China)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01627929
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 17-02797
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 28 2017 4:18PM