A Methodology for Assessing the Potential of Electric Vehicles with French Commercial Vans as a Case Study

This paper presents a methodology aiming at quantitatively evaluating the competitiveness of electric vehicles with respect to conventional ones, with a focus on small vans. Two main constraints are investigated: range and cost. Based on a statistical distribution of the annual driven mileage, the authors' methodology does not require as much data as a disaggregated study, which goes well with the investigation of business users, as there are generally less data available for them than for households travel patterns. Their method also puts into perspective total cost of ownership computations, as economic and range constraints are strongly linked to battery prices. The authors' methodology is then applied to the case of commercial vans in France, today and for a 2021 forecast. Results show that electric vans’ competitiveness is likely to grow in the future even in the case of a reduction in public incentives. They also show an important sensitivity to the input parameters, especially diesel prices and incentives. Different business activities are explored, and freight transportation stands out as the one with the highest potential for electric vehicles. The research also shows the mechanical effect of a decrease in battery prices on the broadening of supply in battery sizes, the impact of which was quantified. This suggests that for electric vehicle forecasts to be accurate, several models with different battery sizes should be considered

• Record URL:
  • https://www.metrans.org/assets/research/TRB2017_Camilleri_Dablanc_final.pdf
• 
• Summary URL:
  • https://www.metrans.org/assets/research/MF%20Research%20Brief%202.2d._Camilleri%20Competitiveness%20of%20EVs.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://www.metrans.org/research/a-methodology-for-assessing-the-potential-of-electric-vehicles-with-french-commercial-vans-as-a-case-study
• Summary URL:
  • https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/68820
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AT025 Standing Committee on Urban Freight Transportation. Alternate title: Methodology for Assessing the Potential of Electric Vehicles with French Commercial Vans as a Case Study.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Camilleri, Pierre
  • Dablanc, Laetitia
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
• Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Commercial vehicles; Electric vehicles; Freight transportation; Methodology; Ownership; Vans
• Geographic Terms: France
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01623307
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 17-00980
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 24 2017 3:31PM