PREDICTING TRANSPORTATION DEMAND

A methodology for predicting passenger transportation demand has been developed. The approach consists of two steps. First, total transportation demand (passengers/year) is estimated using an n-body gravity model (which serves to resolve an order-of-magnitude discrepancy discovered in applications of the previously used simple gravity model). The second step is the prediction of the modal shares of the total transportation demand based on the statistical behavior of passengers in response to the perceived total costs of transportation by alternative modes. The perceived costs are represented by a quantity called "disutility," measured in dollars, which accounts for the value of travel time and allows for the quantification of other perceived costs of travel as related to the frequency of service and the requirement to obtain local transportation in the destination area in the case of a public mode. The modal share model is developed first for a two-mode situation involving competition between air and auto, and is then extended to a multi-modal case through successive representation of the disutility of several modes by a mean disutility.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Contributed by the Intersociety Committee on Transportation for presentation at the Intersociety Conference on Transportation, Denver, Colo., Sept. 23-27, 1973.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Mechanical Engineers

  Two Park Avenue
  New York, NY  United States  10016-5990
• Authors:
  • Hesse, J E
  • Dubin, A P
  • GOBETZ, F W
• Publication Date: 1973-9

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 12 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Freight transportation; Mathematical models; Network analysis (Planning); Transportation; Transportation planning; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00051533
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: American Society of Mechanical Engineers
• Report/Paper Numbers: 73-ICT-103 Paper
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 9 1974 12:00AM