Unreliability Effects in Public Transport Modelling

Nowadays, transport demand models do not explicitly evaluate the impacts of service reliability of transit. Service reliability of transit systems is adversely experienced by users, as it causes additional travel time and unsecure arrival times. Because of this, travelers are likely to perceive a higher utility from more reliable transport systems. In order to mimic and measure the impacts of service reliability on a transit demand model a three-step approach is proposed using automated vehicle location and smart card data. The approach consists of determining the probabilistic distribution of transit trip times, defining demand patterns and estimating the average impacts of unreliability per passenger. This approach was successfully tested on the model of the city of Utrecht in The Netherlands. By adding service reliability as a variable parameter of transit systems the results of the demand model improved, showing that the absolute difference between the observed and the estimated demand decreased by 18%. In addition, the proposed approach allows measuring the effects of expected changes in level of service reliability on traveler behaviour. Finally, the authors identify future research topics required to improve the estimation of those effects.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.14257/ijt.2015.3.1.08
• 
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/22877940
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Copyright ©2015 SERSC.
• Authors:
  • van Oort, Niels
  • Brands, Ties
  • de Romph, Erik
  • Flores, Jessica Aceves
• Publication Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 113-130
• Serial:
  • International Journal of Transportation
  • Volume: 3
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Science & Engineering Research Support soCiety (SERSC)
  • ISSN: 2287-7940
  • Serial URL: http://www.sersc.org/journals/IJT/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Public transit; Quality of service; Reliability; Travel demand; Travel time
• Geographic Terms: Utrecht (Netherlands)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01600971
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 31 2016 9:21AM