Human Error Risk Management Methodology for Rail Crack Incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s40864-016-0032-2
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/21996679
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2015 Zhiru Wang et al.
• Authors:
  • Wang, Zhiru
  • Su, Guofeng
  • Skitmore, Martin
  • Chen, Jianguo
  • Chan, Albert
  • Xia, Bo
• Publication Date: 2015-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 257-265
• Serial:
  • Urban Rail Transit
  • Volume: 1
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Springer Publishing
  • ISSN: 2199-6679
  • Serial URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/40864

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Cracking; Human error; Methodology; Public transit; Railroad rails; Risk management; Sensitivity analysis
• Geographic Terms: Hong Kong (China)
• Subject Areas: Maintenance and Preservation; Public Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01593807
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 16 2016 9:36AM