Handling and presenting uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis

Håndtering og sammenstilling av usikkerhet i nyttekostnadsanalyser

The problem of uncertainty in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is that the decisions cannot be 100% certain, since the information is not 100% complete. This uncertainty should be analysed, presented and handled in a way that improves the choice between project alternatives, enhances risk mitigation in chosen projects. The authors review 19 country (or state/province) guidelines for transport appraisal, and contrast and compare the recommendations of methods for analysing uncertainty, which uncertain variables are to be analysed and finally how uncertainty is presented in the CBA. Together with the findings from this literature review and recommendations from a workshop of experts, the authors also provide recommendations for how to present uncertainty in cost-benefit analyses.

• Record URL:
  https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapporter/2015/1443-2015/1443-2015-elektronisk.pdf
• 
• Summary URL:
  https://www.toi.no/getfile.php/Publikasjoner/T%C3%98I%20rapporter/2015/1443-2015/1443-2015-sum.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9788248016700
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2015 Institute of Transport Economics/Transportøkonomisk Institutt. Text in Norwegian, summary in English.
• Authors:
  • Wangsness, Paal Brevik
  • Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold
  • Minken, Harald
• Publication Date: 2015-10

Language

• English
• Norwegian

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 114p
• Serial:
  • TØI Report
  • Issue Number: 1443/2015
  • Publisher: Institute of Transport Economics (TØI)
  • ISSN: 0808-1190
  • EISSN: 2535-5104
  • Serial URL: https://www.toi.no/publications/category29.html
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Benefit cost analysis; Countries; Decision making; Literature reviews; Recommendations; Risk analysis; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01597295
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9788248016700
• Contract Numbers: 4231
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 26 2016 8:55AM