About the Impact of Personality Attributes on the Transport Demand Forecasting and Benefits Estimation. A Case Study in Concepcion
Decision making on transport investments based on cost benefit analysis, relies strongly upon accurate demand forecasting in order to properly capture the users’ benefits. For that reason, proper methods, models, and data collection techniques that could better predict, for example, how personality factors can influence travel demand. In this work, the authors study the role of personality factors on demand forecasting and the outcome of the consequent cost-benefit analysis. Data include transport mode level of service attributes, socio-demographic information and personality indicators of attitude, affection and habit. These data are used to estimate two demand models. One of the models does not incorporates personality factors whilst the other does it through a latent variables approach when necessary. These models are used to forecast demand levels for different transport modes, when assessing the implementation of public transport exclusive lanes in the city of Concepcion, Chile. After applying the Chilean cost benefit analysis methodology, results show that the net benefit and other economic indicators perform worse when personality factors are considered in the modelling. Actually, when these attributes are not taken into account, demand level and benefits are larger. As a consequence, the omission of these attributes might lead to an overestimation of demand levels and project benefits, altering the efficient outcome of the decision making process. As a consequence, it seems that instrumental, socio-demographic and personality attributes should be considered into the modelling of demand when studying transport public investments.
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Supplemental Notes:
- Abstract used by permission of Association for European Transport.
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Corporate Authors:
Association for European Transport (AET)
1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
London W14 0RL, -
Authors:
- Tapia, Arnoldo
- Tudela, Alejandro
- Carrasco, Juan-Antonio
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Conference:
- European Transport Conference 2015
- Location: Frankfurt , Germany
- Date: 2015-9-28 to 2015-9-30
- Publication Date: 2015
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Bibliography; Figures; Maps; Tables;
- Pagination: 13p
- Monograph Title: European Transport Conference 2015: Strands
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Behavior; Benefit cost analysis; Decision making; Demographics; Forecasting; Investments; Personality; Travel demand
- Geographic Terms: Concepcion (Chile)
- Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01578855
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Oct 23 2015 9:28AM