Hype and Disappointment Cycles for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technology: Analysis of U.S. Media from 1980-2013

Over the past three decades, the field of alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) development has been subject to sudden shifts in collective expectations and innovation activities. In this paper, the authors provide a broad perspective of these hype and disappointment cycles by exploring their framing in the public discourse. The research objectives are to 1) quantify the magnitude of media attention for seven AFV technologies in the New York Times between 1980 and 2013, 2) identify trends in hype and disappointment in this coverage and 3) explore possible links between these patterns and key government and industry trigger events, as well as actual innovation activities. The authors identify hype and disappointment cycles for six out of seven technological options examined. Specifically, they observe increasing trends of positive statements by various actors, followed by increasing proportions of negative statements. Hype and disappointment trends can be linked to trigger events initiated by government (e.g. environmental policies and AFV target statements) and industry (e.g. release of prototypes). These trends are often mirrored by prototype and funding activity. The research suggests that a healthy skepticism regarding technological expectations is warranted on the part of decision makers in the innovation field.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABG50 Transportation History.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Melton, Noel
  • Axsen, Jonn
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternate fuels; Analysis; Mass media; Motor vehicles; Newspapers; Public opinion; Technological innovations
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Energy; Highways; History; Vehicles and Equipment; I91: Vehicle Design and Safety;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01551453
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-5261
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 27 2015 11:23AM