Using an Activity-Based Model to Explore the Potential Impacts of Automated Vehicles

Automated vehicles (AVs) may enter the consumer market with various stages of automation in 10 years or even sooner. Meanwhile, regional planning agencies are envisioning plans for time horizons out to 2040 and beyond. To help decision makers understand the effect of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate its impact on transportation networks and traveler choices. This research uses the Seattle, Washington, region’s activity-based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with AVs in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes were not yet considered. Results of four scenario tests show that improvements in roadway capacity and in the quality of the driving trip may lead to large increases in vehicle miles traveled, while a shift to per mile usage charges may counteract that trend. Travel models will need to have major improvements in the coming years, especially with regard to shared ride, taxi modes, and the effect of multitasking opportunities, to better anticipate the arrival of this technology.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/2493-11
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309369633
• Authors:
  • Childress, Suzanne
  • Nichols, Brice
  • Charlton, Billy
  • Coe, Stefan
• Publication Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 99–106
• Monograph Title: Travel Demand Forecasting, Volume 1
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2493
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Impact studies; Intelligent vehicles; Regional planning; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Vehicle miles of travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Activity-based models
• Geographic Terms: Seattle (Washington)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01558286
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309369633
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-5118
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 30 2015 12:22PM