Trends of Future Heavy Snowfall and Accumulated Freezing Indexes in Hokkaido, Japan

To achieve sufficient, effective winter maintenance, it is important that long-term snow and ice hazard mitigation plans be examined and formulated by taking into consideration the influence of climate change. Due to the authors' concern with the accuracy of global climate model output, they felt it would be preferable to calibrate the results from the climate model in order to estimate future prospects of snow and ice conditions more precisely. In this study, the authors have developed a method of predicting more accurately the indexes of heavy snowfall events that occur over short periods of time and future projections of winter temperatures based on the relationship of observed data to the climate model predicted values. Subsequently, the authors have applied this methodology for Hokkaido, located in northernmost Japan, in order to clarify the trends for near future and century-end future period changes. The results indicate that current measures to mitigate the effects of extremely heavy snowfall in specific areas of Hokkaido may require enhancement of operational procedures, such as those pertaining to snow piling widths on roadsides. In addition, the risk of pavement damage in the colder regions is expected to increase due to the increment in the number of days of zero-crossing.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AH010 Surface Transportation Weather.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Harada, Yusuke
  • Matsuzawa, Masaru
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate change; Forecasting; Freezing; Mathematical prediction; Pavement distress; Snowfall; Winter maintenance
• Geographic Terms: Hokkaido (Japan)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; Planning and Forecasting; I62: Winter Maintenance; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01552258
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-3719
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 2 2015 10:24AM