Heavy Vehicle Demand Evolution In Interurban Toll Roads: Key Explanatory Variables In Spain

Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from road traffic, so that the specific behavioral patterns of this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, the authors present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990-2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE20 Transportation Economics.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Gomez, Juan
  • Vassallo, Jose Manuel
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
• Date: 2015

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Financing; Freight transportation; Heavy vehicles; Toll roads; Traffic volume; Travel demand management
• Geographic Terms: Spain
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01555637
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 15-1362
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 27 2015 10:04AM