Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. The authors make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. The authors focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. The authors then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, the authors are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.06.004
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585641400144X
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Habib, Khandker M
  • Swait, Joffre
  • Salem, Sarah
• Publication Date: 2014-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 110-126
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 67
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Commuting; Cross sectional studies; Econometrics; Evaluation; Mode choice; Stated preferences; Traffic forecasting; Travel surveys
• Geographic Terms: Hamilton (Canada); Toronto (Canada)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01542102
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 29 2014 11:23AM