Comparative Analysis of Bus Dwell Time Based on Time Series Methods

This paper reports an investigation of short-term prediction of bus dwell time based on historical AVL data collected from selected bus stops in Auckland, New Zealand. Time series prediction based on gene expression programming (GEP) for the first time conducted at several different bus stops to model and estimate bus dwell time. Performance of the proposed GEP model compared to the well-known autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Three different methods including mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The GEP performed reasonably well for a short-term prediction of bus dwell time and gave comparable accuracy to the ARIMA Model.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://www.its-jp.org/english/congress_e/
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract used with permission of ITS Japan. Paper No. 4164.
• Corporate Authors:

  ITS Japan

  Tokyo,   Japan 
• Authors:
  • Rashidi, Soroush
  • Ranjitkar, Prakash
• Conference:
  • 20th ITS World Congress
  • Location: Tokyo , Japan
  • Date: 2013-10-14 to 2013-10-18
• Publication Date: 2013

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 10p
• Monograph Title: 20th ITS World Congress, Tokyo 2013. Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Algorithms; Automatic vehicle location; Bus stops; Bus transit; Dwell time; Mathematical prediction; Time series analysis
• Geographic Terms: Auckland (New Zealand)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01536591
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9784990493981
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 2 2014 9:08AM