Predictive reliability assessment of suction caissons for moored floating systems

A procedure for assessing the predictive reliability of suction caissons under inclined loads from mooring lines of floating systems is developed. It considers the randomness of the maximum dynamic tension in the mooring lines during extreme sea states. Parameters of the probability distribution of the maximum dynamic line tension are expressed as function of the uncertain extreme sea-state variables employing response surfaces. Line tensions from catenary and taut-leg mooring models are considered for the response surfaces. Reliability analyses are performed at the mudline, so that loading and caisson capacity can be considered statistically independent. Load capacity is modeled using the plastic limit method considering suction caissons in normally consolidated clays and response surfaces for capacity are generated in terms of geotechnical variables. A nested reliability formulation is presented employing an auxiliary limit state function which is solved numerically applying FORM. The influence of geotechnical variables on the predictive failure probability is studied. Also, the effect of accounting for parameter uncertainty in the loading on the reliability assessment of suction caissons is evaluated.


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  • Accession Number: 01534866
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 20 2014 3:36PM