A demand trend change early warning forecast model for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system

The need of accurate forecasts of air passenger numbers to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms is well recognized and a central problem on both short and long term forecasting is how to handle future trend. The aim of this paper is to develop a demand trend change early warning forecast model (EWFM) for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system (SPMARs). For SPMARs the EWFM is based on the combination of leading indicators and alarms against possible occurrence of changes on trend component of the monthly number of domestic air passengers. A topdown induction procedure is employed to identify leading indicators to provide an interpretable prediction procedure to support the development of scenarios for future demand trend. Results show that changes on such demand trend are mostly associated to changes on the economic activity and six different scenarios were built combining the identified leading indicators. The EWFM was employed to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms in order to evaluate different alternatives to prevent congestion delay occurrences and to support infrastructure planning.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.007
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414000949
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo
• Publication Date: 2014-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 23-32
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 65
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airport planning; Demand; Forecasting; Passenger traffic
• Geographic Terms: Sao Paulo (Brazil)
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01530811
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 24 2014 2:37PM