Empirical Tool to Evaluate the Safety of Cyclists: Community Based, Macrolevel Collision–Prediction Models Using negative Binomial Regression

Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighbourhoods with sustainable transportation. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5 kilometres, is encouraged widely in our neighbourhoods. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists‘ road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed several statistical associations between collisions and explanatory variables: 1) an increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in each of total lane kilometres (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometres (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP), an intuitive result; 2) Surprisingly, an increase in each of drive commuters (DRIVE) and drive commuter percentage (DRP) were found to be associated with a decrease in bicycle collisions, somewhat counterintuitive. One possible reason is that these models were developed in a North American community with low bicycle use (< 4%). To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall safety, in future, macro-level CPMs for communities with medium and high bicycle use will also be pursued.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2011/RSS/3/Wei,F.pdf
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• Supplemental Notes:
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  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Wei, Feng
  • Lovegrove, Gordon
• Conference:
  • 3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation
  • Location: Indianapolis Indiana, United States
  • Date: 2011-9-14 to 2011-9-16
• Publication Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 24p
• Monograph Title: 3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bicycle crashes; Bicycle lanes; Bicycle travel; Commuters; Empirical methods; Risk assessment; Sustainable transportation; Traffic signals; Vulnerable road users
• Geographic Terms: British Columbia
• Subject Areas: Highways; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Safety and Human Factors; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01506176
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 30 2014 1:14PM