Modeling Transitions Between Single- and Multimodal Travel Patterns over Time: Application of Latent Class Transition Analysis

While segmentation studies in the transport domain generally rely on attitudinal variables, it has recently been argued to additionally focus on clusters derived from behavioral indicators. This argument is inspired by the belief that membership of certain initial travel behavior patterns can be predictive of membership of future travel behavior patterns. Specifically, multi-modal travelers may, for reasons identified in this paper, be expected to expose different transition behaviors than single-mode travelers. To empirically assess this expectation, the present study relies on previously gathered panel data (the German mobility panel) to inductively reveal clusters of homogenous travel behavior patterns and model transitions in these patterns over time. Additionally, it examines the effects of several background characteristics and important life events on cluster membership and the transition probabilities. The results show that, over time, multimodal users compared to single-mode users are more likely to switch from one behavioral profile to another. In addition, multimodal clusters seem to function as necessary intermediate steps in the transitions between (several of the) single-modal user patterns.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Kroesen, Maarten
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Cluster analysis; Mode choice; Multimodal transportation; Travel behavior; Travel patterns
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01515825
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-4335
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 25 2014 9:15AM