Representing Walking Activity in Trip-Based Travel Demand Forecasting Models: A Proposed Framework

Support for improving the quality of the walking environment, including more investments to promote pedestrian travel, is growing. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) are modifying regional travel demand forecasting models to better represent walking and bicycling and better address policy-relevant issues like air quality, public health, and the smart allocation of infrastructure and other resources. This paper describes an innovative, spatially-disaggregate framework to integrate walking activity into trip-based travel models. Designed for the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area, the proposed method applies trip generation at a new micro-scale spatial unit: a 264 ft by 264 ft (80 m by 80 m) pedestrian analysis zone (PAZ). Next, a binary logit walk mode split model—using a new pedestrian environment measure—estimates the number of walk trips generated. Non-walk trips are then aggregated up to larger transportation analysis zones (TAZs) for destination choice, mode choice, and traffic assignment. Finally, there are opportunities for choosing destinations and for potential routing of the PAZ pedestrian trips. This framework would improve travel model sensitivity to policy- and investment-related walking influences, and it could operate as a standalone tool for rapid scenario analysis. Care must be taken when applying this method with respect to scalability, forecasting, and operational challenges.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40(1) Emerging Methods. Alternate title: Representing Walking Activity in Trip-Based Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Proposed Framework.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Singleton, Patrick A
  • 0000-0002-9319-2333
  • Muhs, Christopher D
  • Schneider, Robert J
  • Clifton, Kelly J
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Metropolitan areas; Pedestrian traffic; Travel demand; Trip generation; Walking
• Geographic Terms: Portland Metropolitan Area (Oregon)
• Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01518574
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-4253
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 20 2014 1:39PM