Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles
Motivated by the need to produce accurate forecasts of the demand for electric vehicles (EV), this paper discusses the problem of predicting the market shares of new products. Forecasting with choice models requires at least recalibrating the model’s alternative specific constants (ASC) to reflect the fact that unobserved factors can be different in the design year than in the base situation. As most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, the ASC do not reflect the true market and there are no clear rules about model recalibration, even if real market data is available. The paper proposes a method to forecast EV demand using SP data. The authors use a choice model estimated on such data to simulate the EV market share in Denmark in 2030. The results show that if they simply calibrate the ASC based on aggregate real market data for the base year, the model is unresponsive to future changes in the attributes, due to the major adjustment of the constants. To overcome this, the authors suggest a method which combines the choice model with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to obtain a significant market share and as a result of this method a better prediction is obtained.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting.
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Corporate Authors:
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Authors:
- Jensen, Anders Fjendbo
- Cherchi, Elisabetta
- Mabit, Stefan Lindhard
- Ortúzar, Juan de Dios
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC
- Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
- Date: 2014
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 11p
- Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Choice models; Demand; Electric vehicles; Forecasting; Markets; Stated preferences
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I90: Vehicles;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01519996
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 14-3855
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 26 2014 10:13AM