Making Advanced Travel Forecasting Models Affordable Through Model Transferability

The research objective is to empirically test the transferability of activity-based (AB) models between regions. Using 2008-2009 National Household Travel Survey data, AB models are estimated simultaneously for six regions, in California and Florida. Statistical tests are applied to identify regional differences in the models. Tests reject the hypothesis that models based on data from different regions are identical, but most individual coefficients are not significantly different from region to region. There is evidence of model similarity among regions, but small sample sizes prevent strong conclusions. Estimability improves with larger survey samples; 6,000 households provide much better information for estimating coefficients than samples of size 2,500 or less. Thus, although estimation of models using a large local sample is best, it is better to transfer models built using a large sample from a similar region than to estimate new models using a much smaller local sample. However, local survey data are needed for calibrating components of the model. Four specific transferability hypotheses are tested, with results as follows: (1) Supported: Variables that apply to population segments defined by characteristics of individuals or their situational context (segment-specific variables) are more transferable than variables that apply to all individuals. (2) Not supported: Segment-specific variables are more transferable than alternative-specific constants. (3) Strongly supported: Models that deal with activity generation and scheduling are more transferable than models that deal with mode choice and location choice. (4) Inconclusive: Models for different regions within the same state are more transferable than models from different states.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB50 Transportation Planning Applications.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Bowman, John L
  • Bradley, Mark
  • Castiglione, Joe
  • Yoder, Supin L
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Mathematical models; Traffic forecasting
• Identifier Terms: National Household Travel Survey
• Uncontrolled Terms: Activity-based models; Transferability of models
• Geographic Terms: California; Florida
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01516772
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-2534
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 3 2014 4:27PM