An Integrated Model for Discrete and Continuous Decisions with Application to Vehicle Ownership, Type and Usage Choices

This paper proposes an integrated modeling framework for discrete and continuous choice dimensions. The model system is applied to the problem of households vehicle ownership, type and usage. A multinomial probit is used to estimate household vehicle ownership, a multinomial logit is used to estimate the vehicle type (class and vintage) decisions, and a regression is used to estimate the vehicle usage decisions. Correlation between the discrete and continuous parts is captured with a full variance-covariance matrix of the unobserved factors. The model is estimated using Simulated Log-Likelihood method and Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework is tested on simulated data and then estimated on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey and a secondary dataset on vehicle characteristics. The estimated models are based on a number of policy variables and are applied to predict changes in the household decisions on vehicle holding and miles driven, in response to the evolution of social societies, living environment and transportation policies.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting. Alternate title: Integrated Model for Discrete and Continuous Decisions with Application to Vehicle Ownership, Type, and Usage Choices.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Liu, Yangwen
  • Tremblay, Jean-Michel
  • Cirillo, Cinzia
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 23p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Choice models; Decision making; Monte Carlo method; Multinomial logits; Multinomial probits; Regression analysis; Vehicle classification; Vehicle miles of travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Discrete-continuous models; Integrated models; Log-likelihood approach
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01516661
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-2162
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 1 2014 6:12PM