Direct and Lagged Effects of Adverse Winter Weather Conditions on Operating Speed in Urban and Rural Highways: A Time-Series Analysis

This paper investigates the direct and lagged effects of adverse winter weather conditions on the operating speed of a number of highway segments in Ontario using a time-series approach. The effect of adverse weather was studied using data from multiple sites including both urban and rural highways, considering weekdays versus weekends separately. For this purpose, a large dataset containing hourly traffic data, weather variables (temperature, snow, wind speed, etc.), and surface conditions were used. Some previous studies have examined the effect of snowstorms on traffic parameters; however, little has been done regarding their spillover effects (lagged effects). Extreme events or weather conditions might have a strong effect on traffic conditions not only during these events, but also before and after such events. In this study, time-series regression techniques―in particular, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models―were used to model highway operating speed. These methods are able to consider the serial correlation among error terms. From the results, it can be inferred that snow storms have a statistically significant effect on speed. The lagged effects are however offset by the time and intensity of winter maintenance operations during and after the event. The effect of weather also varies depending on the type of site (urban or rural) and day of the week. The results of this study can be applied in quantifying the mobility effect of winter weather and benefits of winter road maintenance.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHD65 Winter Maintenance.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Fu, Ting
  • Heydari, Shahram
  • Miranda-Moreno, Luis F
  • Fu, Liping
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Operating speed; Rural highways; Time series analysis; Urban highways; Weather conditions; Winter maintenance
• Uncontrolled Terms: Autoregressive integrated moving average models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Operations and Traffic Management; I62: Winter Maintenance; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01517533
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-1792
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 10 2014 9:23AM