Comprehensive Approach for the Sensitivity Analysis of High-Dimensional and Computationally Expensive Traffic Simulation Models

The reliability of traffic model results is strictly connected to the quality of its calibration. A challenge arising in this context concerns the selection of the most influential input parameters. A model sensitivity analysis should be used with this aim. However, because of the limitations of time and computational resources, a proper sensitivity analysis is rarely performed in common practice. A recent study introduced a methodology based on Gaussian process metamodels for the sensitivity analysis of computationally expensive traffic simulation models. The main limitation was a dependence on model dimensionality. When the model has more than about 15 to 20 parameters, estimation of a Gaussian process metamodel (also known as a Kriging metamodel) may become problematic. In this paper, the Kriging-based approach is coupled with a recently developed approach, quasi-optimized trajectory-based elementary effects (quasi-OTEE), for the sensitivity analysis of computationally expensive models. The quasi-OTEE sensitivity analysis can be used to identify the whole subset of sensitive parameters of a high-dimensional model, and the Kriging-based sensitivity analysis can then be used to refine the analysis and to rank the different parameters of the subset in a more reliable way. Application of this new sequential sensitivity analysis method is illustrated with the Wiedemann-74 car-following model. Results show that the new method requires 40 times fewer model evaluations than a standard variance-based sensitivity analysis to identify the influential parameters and their ranks.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2422-14
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Comprehensive+Approach+for+the+Sensitivity+Analysis+of+High-Dimensional+and+Computationally+Expensive+Traffic+Simulation+Models&author=Q.+Ge&author=B.+Ciuffo&author=M.+Menendez&publication_year=2014
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309295079
• Authors:
  • Ge, Qiao
  • Ciuffo, Biagio
  • Menendez, Monica
• Publication Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 121–130
• Monograph Title: Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2014, Volume 2
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2422
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calibration; Car following; Methodology; Sensitivity analysis; Traffic models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01517563
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309295079
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-1731
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 10 2014 9:24AM