Simulation Study on Impacts of High Aviation Carbon Taxes on Tourism: Application of Portfolio Vacation Choice Model

Aviation carbon taxes have occasionally been debated as a measure to curb aviation carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This paper presents a simulation study on the effects of high aviation carbon taxes on tourism and its related CO₂ emissions. The paper investigates the scenario in which, as a result of high aviation carbon taxes, air fares increase by 50%. To assess such impacts, choice probabilities of vacation alternatives, which were conceptualized as portfolios consisting of a destination, mode of transport, accommodation type, and length of stay, were simulated by using a portfolio vacation choice model. Lower and upper bounds of the impacts were derived. Simulation results suggested that a substantial reduction of the contribution of tourism travel to anthropogenic climate change could be achieved. Tourism travel-related CO₂-equivalent emissions were estimated to drop between 9% and 32%. Furthermore, it was found that the choice probability of nearby destinations (<200 km) increased considerably: between 4% and 18%. It was also found that the choice probability of short vacations (<1 week) also increased considerably: between 3% and 11%.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2449-07
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Simulation+Study+on+Impacts+of+High+Aviation+Carbon+Taxes+on+Tourism%3a+Application+of+Portfolio+Vacation+Choice+Model&author=S.+van+Cranenburgh&author=C.+Chorus&author=B.+Van+Wee&publication_year=2014
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309295406
• Authors:
  • van Cranenburgh, Sander
  • Chorus, Caspar
  • van Wee, Bert
• Publication Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 64–71
• Monograph Title: Aviation 2014
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Issue Number: 2449
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air travel; Carbon taxes; Choice models; Environmental impacts; Tourism; Travel behavior; Vacations
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Environment; Finance; Planning and Forecasting; I15: Environment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01506562
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780309295406
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-1624
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 5 2014 9:47AM