Examining Temporal Transferability of Trip Frequency Choice Models

Transferability is critical to assessing the validity of behavior models. It measures how well a model developed in a specific temporal, spatial, transportation and institutional context can be applied to another context. Without transferability in time and space, the use of the model will be compromised due to either over- or under-estimating demand, which will lead to inaccurate assessment of the associated transportation needs and poor allocation for infrastructure investment. This study examines the temporal transferability of trip generation models for two purposes, commute trips and shopping trips. Multinomial logit models (MNL) were developed using two datasets from 1998 and 2010. Various transferability tests were conducted at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. The results show some stability for the commute trip model, while the shopping trip model failed to pass the transferability tests. This is in general consistent with expectations that commute travel tends to follow fixed routine while shopping activities would be more subject to the changes in the contexts of lifestyle preference, social and culture paradigm shifts, urban development patterns, etc. This suggests the need to take into account additional variables, such as lifestyle and built environment variables, to improve transferability of models.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Shams, Kollol
  • Jin, Xia
  • Argote, Jorge
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC
  • Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
• Date: 2014

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Commuting; Multinomial logits; Shopping; Trip generation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transferability of models; Trip frequency
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01514306
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 14-0800
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 12 2014 12:33PM