Panel data analysis of public transport patronage growth: an innovative econometric approach

This paper presents an econometric methodology designed to examine, understand and explain patronage growth rates at both the network level and corridor level (i.e. by bus route, bus corridor or train line). This econometric methodology has three distinguishing features: (1) we employ a seasonal difference model (i.e. we focus on explaining patronage growth rates rather than patronage levels); (2) we analyse patronage data that has been disaggregated by corridor, using a corridor-level panel data model; (3) we follow a comprehensive set of stages designed to ensure that any findings are thorough and robust. This econometric methodology has two key benefits. The first is that the methodology assists in isolating and disentangling the contributions of various explanatory variables. The second benefit is that the methodology provides a systematic and scientific means of ‘post-evaluating’ the pay-offs from network changes and service improvements. This econometric methodology was developed by DMK Consulting and employed in a research project commissioned and supported by the NZ Transport Agency. This research project produced an econometric analysis of public transport patronage growth for a selection of New Zealand cities, including Auckland, Wellington, Hamilton and Tauranga. The primary objective of the research was to examine and explain historical trends in patronage growth and, in doing so, provide up-to-date public transport elasticities. This paper uses a few examples from that research report to demonstrate the benefits of this econometric methodology.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.atrf.info/papers/2013/index.aspx
• Authors:
  • Kennedy, D
• Conference:
  • Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 36th, 2013, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
• Publication Date: 2013-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 17p
• Monograph Title: Transport and the new world city: 36th Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), October 2nd-4th 2013, Brisbane

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Econometrics; Economic analysis; Economics; Public transit; Urban areas; Urban transportation
• Geographic Terms: New Zealand
• ATRI Terms: Demand elasticity; Econometrics; Economic analysis; Public transport; Transport economics; Urban transport
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 263: Economics of transport; 744: Public transport
• Subject Areas: Economics; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01504116
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 23 2014 9:53AM