Modeling Two-Vehicle Crash Severity Using a Bivariate Generalized Ordered Probit Approach

This study simultaneously models crash severity of both parties in two-vehicle accidents at signalized intersections in Taipei City, Taiwan, using a novel bivariate generalized ordered probit (BGOP) model. Estimation results show that the BGOP model performs better than the conventional bivariate ordered probit (BOP) model in goodness-of-fit indices and prediction accuracy, and provides a better understanding of factors contributing to different severity levels. According to estimated parameters in latent propensity functions and elasticity effects, several key risk factors are identified—driver type (age >65), vehicle type (motorcycle), violation type (alcohol use), intersection type (three leg and multiple leg), collision type (rear ended), and lighting conditions (night and night without illumination). Corresponding countermeasures for these risk factors are proposed.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2011/RSS/2/Chiou,Y-C.pdf
• 
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Chiou, Yu-Chiun
  • Hwang, Cherng-Chwan
  • Chang, Chih-Chin
  • Fu, Chiang
• Conference:
  • 3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation
  • Location: Indianapolis Indiana, United States
  • Date: 2011-9-14 to 2011-9-16
• Publication Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p
• Monograph Title: 3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Countermeasures; Crash severity; Drivers; Goodness of fit; Motorcycle crashes; Probits; Signalized intersections
• Geographic Terms: Taipei City, Taiwan
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01504349
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 24 2014 2:29PM