Travel Demand Estimation Risk for High-Speed Railway Transport Considering Travel Price Competition

This article reports on a study of travel demand estimated for the Hokkaido Shinkansen (HS) bullet train line, which is scheduled to become operational in 2020 in Japan. The authors note that, because some explanatory variables that are used for such estimation can have estimation errors, travel demand estimation risk is also calculated. In addition, because the HS will be expected to compete with airlines for modal share, the impacts of travel price competition (TPC) on the travel demand and the demand estimation risk are a part of the estimation. The study includes data for the origin-destination (O-D) pair of Sapporo and Tokyo. The authors found that the modal share of HS is 16% less when TPC is considered than when it is not considered. In addition, TPC causes the travel demand estimation risk to decrease. The probabilities of the HS operating at a deficit with and without consideration of TPC are calculated as 31.2% and 1.25%, respectively. The authors also provide data on the anticipated increase in the mean consumer surplus accruing from the HS.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.194
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/5121625
• Authors:
  • Uchida, Kenetsu
  • Sugiki, Nao
• Publication Date: 2013-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 737-750
• Serial:
  • Journal of Advanced Transportation
  • Volume: 47
  • Issue Number: 8
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
  • ISSN: 0197-6729
  • EISSN: 2042-3195
  • Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2042-3195
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air travel; Economic factors; Estimating; High speed rail; Passenger transportation; Pricing; Railroad travel; Travel demand
• Identifier Terms: Hokkaido Shinkansen
• Geographic Terms: Sapporo (Japan); Tokyo (Japan)
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01541840
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 27 2014 9:27AM