Dynamic Concepts for Travel Demand on Return-Home Trips following Earthquakes

動的概念による地震発生時の帰宅交通需要の考え方

Based on an analysis of current concepts concerning people's return-home trips (RHTs) and using original survey data collected between 1995 and 2009, this paper proposes new concepts in travel demand on RHTs following earthquakes. Recently, travel demand on RHTs has been estimated at hourly intervals using the defacto population of those who spend time in the stay zone and those who return home (or do not return home) after the occurrence of an earthquake. However, in new interpretations of this data, RHT travel demand can be more realistically and accurately assessed using new concepts of dynamic trips, simulations of sudden earthquake occurrences (at 5-minute intervals), enhanced details featuring five locations between origins and destinations, and the path dependencies of 16 types of response trips. 本研究は、既存の地震発生時の帰宅交通需要算出プロセスを考察した上で、実態調査データを用いて、トリップの動的特性などから推計した需要との差を比較分析し、地震発生時の帰宅交通需要分析の新たな考え方を模索しようとしたものである。既存の地震発生時の帰宅交通需要は、1時間単位の地震発生想定時刻での滞留人口の帰宅有無の二択行動を「静的概念」から算出している。一方、本研究では、トリップの動的特性、地震発生の突発性(5分単位での地震発生想定時刻)、地震発生時の居場所別16レスポンストリップの多様性と経路依存性の「動的概念」を用いて、より実態にあった地震発生時の帰宅交通需要を導き出した。

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.11361/journalcpij.47.23
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=Dynamic+Concepts+for+Travel+Demand+on+Return-Home+Trips+following+Earthquakes&author=J.+Choe&publication_year=2012
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09160647
• Authors:
  • Choe, JaeYoung
• Publication Date: 2012

Language

• English
• Japanese

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 23-34
• Serial:
  • Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan
  • Volume: 47
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: City Planning Institute of Japan
  • ISSN: 0916-0647
  • EISSN: 2185-0593
  • Serial URL: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/journalcpij/-char/en

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Dynamic models; Earthquakes; Emergency trips; Evacuation; Residential location; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Person trips
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01504929
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)
• Files: TRIS, JSTAGE
• Created Date: Jan 27 2014 10:45AM