Factor complexity of crash occurrence: An empirical demonstration using boosted regression trees

Factor complexity is a characteristic of traffic crashes. This paper proposes a novel method, namely boosted regression trees (BRT), to investigate the complex and nonlinear relationships in high-variance traffic crash data. The Taiwanese 2004–2005 single-vehicle motorcycle crash data are used to demonstrate the utility of BRT. Traditional logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) models are also used to compare their estimation results and external validities. Both the in-sample cross-validation and out-of-sample validation results show that an increase in tree complexity provides improved, although declining, classification performance, indicating a limited factor complexity of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes. The effects of crucial variables including geographical, time, and sociodemographic factors explain some fatal crashes. Relatively unique fatal crashes are better approximated by interactive terms, especially combinations of behavioral factors. BRT models generally provide improved transferability than conventional logistic regression and CART models. This study also discusses the implications of the results for devising safety policies.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.08.015
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000145751200303X
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract used with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Chung, Yi-Shih
• Publication Date: 2013-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 107-118
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 61
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Logistic regression analysis; Motorcycle crashes; Single vehicle crashes; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Classification and regression trees
• Geographic Terms: Taiwan
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01502625
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 30 2013 11:05AM