Household Travel Analysis Using Bayesian Negative Binomial Models

One critical component in transportation planning is the relationship between household travel patterns and socioeconomic factors. The 2009 National Household Travel Survey in the U.S. provides data to characterize such a relationship. Although NHTS is considered the most informative dataset for house travel patterns on national level, the depth and frequency of the survey are constrained by available budget. The goal of this study is to develop a better model to produce more reasonable parameter estimations and better prediction performance. This paper examines the conventional negative binomial regression model for household trips production analysis. This approach incorporates prior information, has optimal small-sample properties and allows for tractable inference. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, parameters are estimated a randomly sampled dataset. It is found that Bayesian negative binomial model is effective in enhancing model estimation performance when sample size is limited but reliable prior information is available.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412442.367
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780784412442
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Zhang, Dapeng
  • Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)
• Conference:
  • Twelfth COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals
  • Location: Beijing , China
  • Date: 2012-8-3 to 2012-8-6
• Publication Date: 2012-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 3642-3648
• Monograph Title: CICTP 2012: Multimodal Transportation Systems—Convenient, Safe, Cost-Effective, Efficient

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Households; Mathematical models; Socioeconomic factors; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Travel surveys
• Identifier Terms: National Household Travel Survey
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01521872
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784412442
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Apr 10 2014 10:09AM