Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

This article presents and describes three simulation models used to assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events. The authors provide these models to users who can use them to either prevent untoward events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. The second model is a line source plume model used to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train. The third is an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. The authors note that although each model can work independently, used together they provide a planning strength that can make rail systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. The article outlines how the econometric model allows time series economic impact estimates of low probability high consequence events associated with a bridge failure for one year and a chlorine exposure event. The authors conclude with a brief discussion of the realities of incorporating these models into actual planning offices and operations.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12073
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/02724332
• Authors:
  • Greenberg, Michael R
  • Lioy, Paul
  • Ozbas, Birnur
  • Mantell, Nancy
  • Isukapalli, Sastry
  • Lahr, Michael
  • Altiok, Tayfur
  • Bober, Joseph
  • Lacy, Clifton
  • Lowrie, Karen
  • Mayer, Henry
  • Rovito, Jennifer
• Publication Date: 2013-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1969-1986
• Serial:
  • Risk Analysis
  • Volume: 33
  • Issue Number: 11
  • Publisher: Society for Risk Analysis
  • ISSN: 0272-4332
  • Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bridges; Chemical spills; Econometric models; Economic analysis; Economic factors; Failure analysis; Hazardous materials; Mathematical models; Passenger trains; Railroad safety; Spills (Pollution)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure; I85: Safety Devices used in Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01529899
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 1 2014 9:02AM