Systemic identification of airspace collision risk tipping points using an evolutionary multi-objective scenario-based methodology

One key measure for judging the safety of operations in an airspace is the collision risk estimate. Comparing this estimate to the target level of safety (TLS), a quantitative value provides an objective assessment on airspace safety of operations. However, this quantitative value does not provide any reasoning or insight on the interaction between sector and traffic features on the one hand, and the air traffic controllers (ATC) actions for traffic flow management (TFM) on the other hand. There are two fundamentally different approaches to manage high risk scenarios. One is post the event, where we need to ask what we should do to reduce risk in a scenario that is already high risk. The second is a preventive pre-the-event approach, where we can ask the question of what are the causes that make a low risk scenario becoming a high risk one. By identifying these causes, one can prevent risk to escalate. This paper is about this second approach. The authors propose an evolutionary multi-objective scenario-based methodology for the systemic identification of airspace collision risk tipping points. The methodology attempts to help gain insight into the interaction of traffic and sector features with ATC actions that can lead to an increase in collision risk in an otherwise low risk traffic scenario. Results indicate that “risk-free” scenarios having collision risk below the TLS can become “risk-prone” by very few or even just one ATC action. The authors found that a “Turn To Next Waypoint” ATC action, which is very common in traffic flow management for expediting aircraft to meet their metering requirements, may significantly increase collision risk due to unexpected flight crossings with undesired crossing angles and relative speed with other aircraft in the vicinity. The results also provide an understanding of ATC actions in a given scenario that should be avoided to reduce collision risk.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2013.05.010
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X13001113
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0968090X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Alam, Sameer
  • Lokan, Chris
  • Aldis, Geoff
  • Barry, Steve
  • Butcher, Rob
  • Abbass, Hussein
• Publication Date: 2013-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 57-84
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
  • Volume: 35
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0968-090X
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic controllers; Air transportation crashes; Aviation safety; Crash causes; Crash risk forecasting; Decision making; Flow control (Air traffic control); Risk management
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; I73: Traffic Control; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01499545
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 21 2013 9:21AM