Development of Maryland Statewide Transportation Model and Its Application in Scenario Planning

Maryland has a long history of being a leader in land use planning and was an early adopter of the concept of smart growth for sustainable development. The Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) is the first statewide travel demand model developed for the Washington-Baltimore region. Its primary development has occurred through the course of the last three years (2009-2012). A summary of the model structure is presented in this paper. The rationale for the MSTM’s development is discussed in the paper followed by a description of the study area and model structure. The novelty of the MSTM is the use of a three-layer structure. The first layer includes macro scale travel patterns from the entire U.S. and the third layer includes travel patterns at a finer urban level detail. The second layer is statewide in scope and is an amalgamation of the first and third layer. The trip-based model consists of eighteen trip purposes that are cross-classified by five income categories, eleven modes of travel, and four time-of-day periods. The model components have been estimated and calibrated using the results of household travel surveys done across the major metropolitan areas in the state during 2006 and 2007. The MSTM has been validated against traffic counts and vehicle miles travel data for the year 2007. Further, the model is used in scenario planning by analyzing the model sensitivity to various policies currently being considered at the statewide level with a 2030 planning horizon. Four scenarios are considered in the sensitivity analysis and each scenario was compared to a reference case. All scenario results provide greater insights to policy decision making. This tool can be used as an instrument for statewide travel demand modeling in Maryland and policy decision making for scenario planning.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADA10(2) Statewide Travel Demand Forecasting.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Mishra, Sabyasachee
  • Welch, Timothy F
  • Moeckel, Rolf
  • Mahapatra, Subrat
  • Tadayon, Morteza
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
• Date: 2013

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Land use planning; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Travel patterns; Trip purpose; Vehicle miles of travel
• Geographic Terms: Maryland
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure; I70: Traffic and Transport;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01478674
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 13-5024
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 17 2013 2:12PM