Collision Propensity Index for Unsignalized Intersections: Structural Equation Modeling Approach
The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative collision propensity index (CPI) that captures the overall propensity of a given surrounding environment to cause accidents at un-signalized intersections. Using structural equation modeling, the index can be estimated from observed geometric, vehicular, driver-related, and traffic-related characteristics. Utilizing the California Department of Transportation's data repository, information on 4388 collisions occurring at 2709 different intersections was collected and processed. A statistically significant converging structural equation model was found reflecting the safety impact of different surrounding elements/dimensions on driving behavior: The CPI provides (a) a basis for quantifying the effects of the aforementioned characteristics on traffic safety and/or incident properties, (b) a basis for comparing the differences between the dimensions affecting collision propensity based on different exogenous measures’ classification schemes and (c) ranking the corresponding un-signalized intersections for improved safety performance. The framework and methodology used to develop this index has the potential to support safety policy analysis and decision making.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABJ80 Statistical Methods.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Schorr, Justin
- Hamdar, Samer H
- Vassallo, Terasa
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
- Date: 2013
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 20p
- Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Highway safety; Methodology; Statistical analysis; Unsignalized intersections
- Geographic Terms: California
- Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01477613
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3915
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Apr 5 2013 4:47PM