Freighter Airplane Cargo Fire Risk and Benefit Cost Model

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Transport Canada, and the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority requested a Risk and Benefit Cost Model be developed to assess the likely number of U.S.-registered freighter fire accidents, and the benefit/cost ratio associated with seven mitigation strategies identified by the FAA. This report explains the data used by the Model, its algorithms, and the way in which the Model may be used. The Model addresses the potential fire threat from all forms of cargo, including the bulk shipment of lithium batteries (primary and secondary) because they likely contributed to two of the five freighter fire accidents that have occurred on U.S.-registered airplanes. The Model displays the number of accidents through 2020 and costs, benefits, and the benefit/cost ratios through to 2025. The Model prediction of the average number of accidents likely to occur from 2011 to 2020, if no mitigation action is taken, is approximately 6—with a 95-percentile range of approximately 2 to 13. If no mitigation action is taken, accident costs are likely to average approximately $44 million (U.S.) per annum over the period 2011 to 2025. The primary contribution to freighter fire accident costs is the value of the airplane—with values of approximately 90% of the total accident cost for the larger freighter airplanes. However, the Model predictions of accident costs are based on the assumption that the composition of the U.S.-registered freighter fleet will be largely unchanged from 2010 through 2025 in terms of the size and value of airplanes. The costs of implementing the proposed mitigation strategies are currently not known to a sufficient level of accuracy to make accurate determinations of benefit/cost ratios. However, the Model has been constructed to allow user inputs of costs once they become available.

  • Record URL:
  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Jointly funded by the Federal Aviation Administration and Transport Canada. The Federal Aviation Administration Aviation Research Division Technical Monitor was Richard Hill.
  • Corporate Authors:

    R G W Cherry & Associates Limited

    Star Street
    Ware, Hertfordshire  United Kingdom  SG127AA

    Federal Aviation Administration

    William J. Hughes Technical Center
    Aviation Research Division
    Atlantic City International Airport, NJ  United States  08405
  • Publication Date: 2012-3


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Edition: Final Report
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 73p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01446240
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/FAA/AR-12/3
  • Files: TRIS, USDOT
  • Created Date: Sep 14 2012 11:15AM