Vehicle population dynamics: tracing, forecasting and assessing changing population characteristics

A significant number of road transport study areas including road project evaluation, aggregate automotive fuel consumption measurement, road user charging strategies, and road safety require access not only to detailed descriptions of particular vehicle fleets but also to changes in these over time. A survey of the available data and literature indicates, with some exceptions, that data deficiencies are encountered in both population profiling and tracing change, and that the need to trace change has been inadequately appreciated. Rectification of the latter is required to set individual studies in context, and to improve results notably where assumptions relating to future vehicle populations, composition and usage are employed. A methodology interrelating the various particular target vehicle populations employed in studies, such as fleets on register, fleets 'on the road', and fleets used or accessible to economic entities is advanced, and a number of methods of measuring change together with associated data requirements put forward. While restricted primarily to use of private vehicles in urban areas, the results were found to be encouraging. Significant change in vehicle characteristics was indicated. Results yielded by surveys of differing target populations proved compatible, supporting the methodology advances, and projections of population age distributions based on prior estimates of vehicle life expectancy proved to be an effective means of detecting and forecasting change at a macro level. A need for a standardised method of characterising vehicles was also identified to facilitate inter population comparisons and maximise use of available data. In view of the results achieved, further work is recommended to trace, forecast, and explain changing vehicle populations and their usage, plus some extension of these analyses to non urban areas and freight. The collection and appropriate use of vehicle operating costs is a major area for the early application of the methodology proposed.

• Record URL:
  • http://arrbknowledge.com
• Authors:
  • Thoresen, T
  • Wigan, M
• Conference:
  • Australian Road Research Board (ARRB) Conference, 10th, 1980, Sydney
• Publication Date: 1980-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 206-34
• Monograph Title: Land use traffic impact prediction
• Serial:
  • Volume: 10
  • Issue Number: 5

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Economics; Energy conservation; Evaluation; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Statistical analysis; Vehicle mix
• ATRI Terms: Energy conservation; Evaluation; Forecast; Fuel consumption; Statistics; Traffic composition; Transport economics; Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Energy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01439223
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ATRI
• Created Date: Aug 24 2012 10:05PM