SOFT SCIENCE OF PREDICTING TRAVELLER BEHAVIOR

PREDICTING TRAFFIC GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION IS TREATED AS A PROBLEM OF ECONOMIC DEMAND. THIS DEMAND IS ASSUMED TO BE GENERATED BY UTILITY MAXIMIZING HOUSEHOLDS AND THEN AGGREGATED. THE PREDICTION FORMULAE OBTAINED FOR THE CLASS OF SEPARABLE UTILITY FUNCITIONS ARE COMPARED WITH THE GRAVITY AND ENTROPY EXPRESSIONS. SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS FROM THE DETROIT AREA ARE INTRODUCED AS ILLUSTRATIONS. IN THIS CASE, THE ENTROPY APPROACH DOES AS WELL EMPIRICALLY AS THE UTILITY APPROACH. THE UTILITY MODEL IDENTIFIES ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC VARIABLES THAT ARE RELEVANT. IT ALSO REVEALS THE RATHER STRONG ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS IMPLIED BY THE ENTROPY AND GRAVITY APPROACHES. SHORTCOMINGS OF THE PRESENT UTILITY MODEL BASED ON SEPARABLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS ARE NOTED AND DISCUSSED. /AUTHOR/

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Planning and Technology

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Beckmann, M J
• Publication Date: 1973-1

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 175-81
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Transp Planning & Technology
  • Volume: 1
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Transportation Planning and Technology

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Economic factors; Entropy (Communications); Forecasting; Gravity; Mathematical models; Traffic assignment; Trip generation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00224244
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 25 1973 12:00AM