METHODS FOR STATISTICAL VALIDATION OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR FREEWAY TRAFFIC NEAR AN ON-RAMP

VEHICLE TRAFFIC ON A SECTION OF A FREEWAY (EXPRESSAY) NEAR AN ON-RAMP IS SIMULATED BY A MONTE CARLO MODEL. ABILITY OF THE MODEL TO REPRESENT ACTUAL TRAFFIC FLOW IS INVESTIGATED BY OBSERVING OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS AND MAKING COMPARISONS WITH RESULTS FROM CORRESPONDING SIMULATIONS. MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS ARE USED THAT COMPARE STATISTICS FOR OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS WITH VALUES OF THESE PROPERTIES FOR CORRESPONDING SIMULATIONS (TO SEE IF THE DIFFERENCE IS SIGNIFICANT). SEPARATE COMPARISONS ARE MADE FOR THREE KINDS OF STATISTICS: (1) AVERAGE TRAVEL TIME FOR VEHICLES ENTERING ON THE FREEWAY. (2) AVERAGE TRAVEL TIMES FOR VEHICLES ENTERING ON-RAMP. (3) SOME AVERAGES OF VELOCITIES. TWO PHASES OCCUR, DEPENDING ON THE DATA, FOR OPERATIONAL SYSTEMS. DATA FOR THE FIRST PHASE ARE CRUDE AND INCOMPLETE, SO THAT CORRESPONDENCE OF THE MODEL TO AN OPERATIONAL SYSTME IS ROUGH (VEHICLES ENTER OBSERVATION ON A RANDOM BASIS, ETC.). THE DATA FOR THE SECOND PHASE ARE TO BE COMPLETE AND RATHER ACCURATE. THEN, THE VEHICLES CAN ENTER OBSERVATION AT THE SAME TIMES, LOCATIONS AND VELOCITIES AS FOR THE OPERATIONAL SYSTEM. ALSO , A MORE REFINED MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS CAN BE USED. FOR THE FIRST PHASE, THE BASIC COMPARISON IS BETWEEN EXPECTED VALUES OF THE STATISTICS. EXPECTED VALUES AND VARIANCES CAN BE COMPARED FOR THE SECOND PHASE. /AUTHOR/

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 4, No 4, PP 379-384, 2 FIG, 1 REF
• Authors:
  • Gafarian, A V
  • Walsh, J E
• Publication Date: 1970

Media Info

• Serial:
  • Transportation Research /UK/
  • Volume: 4
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Pergamon Press, Incorporated

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Freeway operations; Highway traffic; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo method; On ramps; Traffic simulation; Traffic speed; Traffic surveillance; Travel time; Validation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Vehicular traffic
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00227319
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 11 1971 12:00AM