SURVEILLANCE OF FATAL MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS IN MICHIGAN, INVOLVING YOUNG DRIVERS, UTILIZING TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF POLICE RECORDS

EPIDEMIOLOGIC SURVEILLANCE TECHNIQUES WERE APPLIED TO THE FATAL MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENT RECORDS OF THE MICHIGAN STATE POLICE FOR THE YEARS 1961-68. THE PRIMARY PURPOSE WAS TO DEVELOP A BASELINE OF EXPECTED RATES FOR SEVERAL RECENT YEARS AGAINST WHICH INCOMING REPORTS CAN BE PLOTTED WEEKLY TO IMPROVE POLICE SURVEILLANCE AND TO PROVIDE CLUES FOR PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT AND OBJECTIVE EVALUATION. A TIME-SERIES GRAPH OF 3 YEAR, 3 WEEK MOVING MEANS WAS PLOTTED FROM THE NUMBERS (OR RATES) OF DRIVERS INVOLVED IN FATAL MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS WITH AN ESTIMATED 97.5 PERCENT UPPER CONFICENCE BAND. ACUTE EFFECTS (AS HOLIDAYS AND WEEKENDS) ARE SMOOTHED BUT SUSTAINED PEAKS ARE CLEARLY INDICATED. THUS, FOR DRIVERS OF ALL AGES, SIGNIFICANT SUMMER AND FALL INCREASES IN ACCIDENT SUGGEST INCREASES IN MILES DRIVEN AND PERHAPS MORE LONG DISTANCE TRIPS. RATES OF FATAL ACCIDENT INVOLVEMENT INDICATE A PIVOTAL ROLE OF DANGEROUS YOUNG DRIVERS, AGED 18-19 IN 1968 COMPARED TO 1967, AND A 3 YEAR PLOT (1964-65-66) INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SPRING UPSWING IN TEENAGE FATAL CRASHES IN APRIL-MAY-JUNE, SUGGESTING A SPECIFIC SEASONAL TARGET FOR POLICE-AND-EDUCATIONAL COUNTERMEASURES IN MICHIGAN FOR 1970. /AA&P/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 2, No 4, PP 315-334, 6 FIG, 2 TAB, 8 REF
• Authors:
  • SCHUMAN, S H
  • Schork, M A
  • Srivannaboon, S
• Publication Date: 1971-3

Media Info

• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 4
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Adolescents; Drivers; Fatalities; Seasons; Time series analysis; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Seasonal variations
• Old TRIS Terms: Minors
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00223551
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-009861
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 1 1971 12:00AM