A TWO-STAGE MODEL FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PREDICTION

THE MAJOR STREET SYSTEM OF METROPOLITAN ADELAIDE HAS BEEN DIVIDED INTO SOME 250 ROAD SECTIONS FOR THE PURPOSE OF ACCIDENT EVALUATION. THE OBJECT WAS TO DETERMINE THE WORST SECTIONS. FOR EACH SECTION, THE MILLION VEHICLE MILES (M. V. M.) WAS CALCULATED AND PLOTTED AGAINST ACCIDENT DAMAGE. A LINEAR RELATIONSHIP WAS SHOWN TO EXIST BETWEEN M. V. M. AND ACCIDENT DAMAGE; FROM THIS A WEIGHT WAS ASSIGNED TO EACH SECTION TO MAKE POSSIBLE A COMPARISON BETWEEN SECTIONS. SECTIONS WITH MAJOR GEOMETRIC DIFFERENCES WERE NOT COMPARED. THE VIRTUE OF THE SYSTEM LIES IN THAT IT CAN DETECT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ROAD GEOMETRICS TO WHICH THE VARIATION IN ACCIDENT DAMAGE IS ATTRIBUTED. /AUTHOR/

• Record URL:
  http://arrbknowledge.com
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 5, Part 3, PAPER NO 723, PP 365-378, 2 FIG, 2 TAB, 9
• Corporate Authors:

  ARRB

  Melbourne, Victoria  Australia 
• Authors:
  • Vaughan, R J
  • Goulbergh, G
  • Buckley, D J
  • FOLDVARY, L A
  • Andreassend, D C
• Conference:
  • Australian Road Research Board Conference Proc
• Publication Date: 1970

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash investigation; Forecasting; Geometric design; Highways; Loss and damage; Mathematical models; Traffic crashes
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00221548
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 20 1972 12:00AM